Good morning and welcome back to The Wolf’s Den. It is Monday, June 1st, and it is finally starting to feel like summer. But as the weather warms up, so does the political calendar. Campaigns are moving faster. Primaries are wrapping up. The 2026 midterms are coming into sharper focus. And this week, Congress returns to Capitol Hill after a month of Republican chaos that Donald Trump largely created himself.
I will break down everything you need to know about the chaos Donald Trump has created and now will have to deal with below, but before I continue, please consider becoming a paid subscriber today. You will gain access to additional exclusive content, more access to me and more. You will also be investing in one of the fasting growing independent media operations meant to fight back against both MAGA and the biggest failures within traditional media. Thank you for your support!
Okay, let’s get into it. If the month of May proved anything, it is that Donald Trump still has a powerful grip on the Republican grassroots. He remains the dominant figure inside the GOP. Republican primary voters still listen to him. Republican candidates still fear him. Republican elected officials still understand that, in many cases, Trump can make or break their careers.
But control over a party is not the same thing as competent leadership.
That is the problem Trump is now facing.
Over the last several weeks, Trump has shown a willingness to turn on members of his own party when they cross him, question him, or refuse to fall fully in line. We have seen him target Republicans like Thomas Massie, Bill Cassidy, and John Cornyn. That may satisfy Trump’s base in the short term. It may make him look strong on social media. It may even remind Republican officials that he still owns the party’s political machinery.
But now Congress is returning, and Trump needs those same Republicans to help him govern.
That is where things get complicated.
Republicans are preparing to move forward with reconciliation, the special legislative process that allows certain budget, tax, and spending bills to pass the Senate with a simple majority rather than the usual 60 votes. Democrats have used reconciliation before, including for the Inflation Reduction Act, so the process itself is not unusual. But the political environment Republicans are walking into is deeply unstable.
Their majorities are slim. Their caucus is divided. Their president is erratic. And some of the Republicans Trump has personally attacked now have very little incentive to help him secure a legislative win.
That is the consequence of ruling through fear and humiliation. Eventually, the people you humiliate are the same people whose votes you need.
If you are Bill Cassidy, John Cornyn, or Thomas Massie, why would you go out of your way to protect Donald Trump’s legacy after he tried to destroy your political future? Why would you stick your neck out for a president who has made clear that loyalty only flows one way?
That is the real danger for Trump.
He may still be able to dominate Republican primaries, but governing requires patience, discipline, trust, and coalition-building. Trump has never been good at any of those things. His instinct is always to attack, threaten, punish, and demand obedience. That might work in a rally hall. It does not always work when you need votes in the House and Senate.
And this week, the stakes are high.
Republicans are still fighting over Trump’s massive slush fund for January 6th defendants and political allies. They are still trying to navigate a reconciliation package that could become a nightmare for leadership. Mike Johnson and John Thune will have to manage a caucus full of personal grudges, ideological divisions, and members who know Trump is more interested in dominance than governing.
At the same time, the administration is facing serious foreign policy questions, including Iran negotiations that appear to be going nowhere. It raises the question of whether Trump is actually pursuing a strategy or simply buying time while trying to figure out what comes next.
So yes, Trump still controls the Republican Party.
But that control is beginning to come with costs.
Congress is back. The Republican Party is divided. And Donald Trump may soon learn that fear is not the same thing as loyalty.
-Ethan
