Good morning and welcome back to today’s edition of the Wolf’s Den. It’s Thursday, July 23rd and Donald Trump may be having one of the worst weeks of his presidency—and the consequences are beginning to show up everywhere.
I will break down everything you need to know about Trump’s no good, very bad week below.
Oil prices have surged back above $100 a barrel as the war with Iran continues to spiral. That is terrible news for a president who ran in 2024 promising to lower costs and end “forever wars.” Instead, Trump has pulled the United States into another Middle Eastern conflict while Americans face the threat of higher prices at the gas pump, the grocery store and nearly everywhere else.
Trump’s earlier agreement with Iran was supposed to calm the conflict and ease pressure on global energy markets. But that arrangement has fallen apart, the Strait of Hormuz remains a flashpoint and the fighting has resumed. Trump has failed to accomplish the goals he used to justify the war, failed to produce a lasting peace and failed to protect Americans from the economic fallout.
That would be politically damaging under any circumstances. It is devastating when affordability remains the dominant concern for millions of voters.
The collapse is not limited to foreign policy. Trump’s SAVE America Act, one of his biggest legislative priorities, remains stalled in the Senate. The bill lacks the votes required to overcome a filibuster, and Senate Majority Leader John Thune has shown little interest in destroying Senate rules to rescue it. Trump is now publicly pressuring his own supporters to target Thune—an extraordinary display of weakness from a president whose party controls Congress.
Then came the polling.
A new Emerson College survey gives Democrats an astonishing 11-point lead on the generic congressional ballot, 53% to 42%. A separate Fox News poll puts Democrats ahead by seven points, with 53% of voters supporting the Democratic candidate in their House district and 46% backing the Republican.
The underlying numbers are even more alarming for the GOP. According to Fox, voters prefer Democrats on income inequality by 22 points, healthcare by 21, inflation by 10, the economy by nine and foreign policy by seven.
Those results matter because they cut directly against the argument Republicans have made for years: that voters may dislike Trump’s behavior but still trust his party to manage their money and keep the country safe. Today, that advantage is disappearing. Democrats are not merely benefiting from anti-Trump anger; they are winning the argument over competence itself and stability.
Perhaps most remarkable is immigration. Republicans held an eight-point advantage on the issue in April. Now Democrats lead by one. An issue that helped return Trump to power has become another Republican liability.
These numbers do not guarantee victory. Democrats still have to recruit strong candidates, communicate a clear economic message, organize everywhere and turn voters out in November. Gerrymandering also means Democrats may need to win the national House vote decisively to secure a majority.
But the direction is unmistakable.
Trump promised strength and delivered chaos. He promised lower prices and delivered another oil shock. He promised to end wars and dragged America into a new one. Now his agenda is stalling, his approval rating is collapsing and voters are moving toward Democrats on the issues that matter most.
Republicans have just over 100 days to turn the ship around. Judging by this week, they may already be taking on water faster than they can bail it out.
-Ethan
