Good morning and welcome back to today’s edition of The Wolf’s Den. It is Friday (thank god), May 8th, and today I have more bad news for you on the economy that is likely to harm the Trump Administration’s overall political ambitions.
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Like most economic news in this political era, it requires holding two thoughts at once. The April jobs report was not a disaster. In fact, the economy added 115,000 jobs last month, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.3 percent. That is better than many expected, and it is worth saying plainly: people getting hired is good news. A strong labor market matters. Families need paychecks. Workers need stability. Communities need people employed.
But that is not the whole story. Not even close.
Because while Donald Trump is trying to sell the American people a fantasy about the economy, working families are living in reality. They are paying more at the pump. They are watching prices climb. They are seeing their wages fail to keep pace with the cost of living. And they know exactly what it feels like to work hard, do everything right, and still come out behind.
The rate of inflation rose at a 4% clip in April, jumping sharply from March’s 2.4%. This is an enormous deal because wage growth in April was only 3.6% meaning that on average, the ordinary working American worked harder for less money. That is not a recipe for success in American politics and economic stewardship.
That is the central economic story of this moment. Not just whether jobs were added. Not just whether the stock market had a good day. The real question is whether ordinary Americans feel like they can afford their lives. And right now, for too many people, the answer is no.
The warning signs are everywhere. Inflation is expected to run hot as energy costs continue to ripple through the economy. Wage growth is not keeping up with the pressure families are feeling. The national average for regular gas is now about $4.55 a gallon, according to AAA, up sharply from a year ago. That is not some abstract number on a spreadsheet. That is the difference between a family filling the tank comfortably and a family having to rethink groceries, childcare, rent, or a doctor’s appointment.
And yet Donald Trump’s response has been to tell Americans that gas prices are coming down. He wants people to believe that everything is fine. He wants them to ignore the signs outside the gas station, ignore the receipts in their pockets, ignore the bills on their kitchen table, and ignore the stress they feel every time another monthly expense goes up.
That is not leadership. That is gaslighting.
A president who understands working people would acknowledge the pain. He would say, “I know prices are too high. I know families are getting squeezed. I know this is unacceptable, and I am fighting every day to fix it.” But Trump cannot do that, because empathy has never been his political language. His instinct is not to listen. His instinct is to deny. His instinct is to brag. His instinct is to tell Americans that what they are experiencing is not actually happening.
But the American people are not stupid.
They know when prices are higher. They know when their paycheck does not stretch as far as it used to. They know when a president is more interested in protecting his image than solving their problems. And they definitely know when someone is trying to insult their intelligence.
The broader economic danger here is that this is not happening in isolation. The war in the Middle East has already sent shockwaves through global energy markets. The World Bank recently warned that energy prices are projected to surge 24 percent this year, with commodity prices rising broadly as the conflict pushes inflationary pressure through the global economy. The Dallas Fed has also warned that oil shocks tied to the Strait of Hormuz could keep headline inflation elevated through much of the year.
That means this is not just a bad-news cycle for Trump. It is a real affordability crisis for the country.
And politically, it is toxic for Republicans.
Democrats do not need to overcomplicate the message. They need to say what people already know: Trump and Republicans promised affordability, but they delivered chaos. They promised stability, but they delivered higher costs. They promised strength, but they delivered an economy where working people are once again being asked to absorb the consequences of reckless decisions made by the powerful.
The jobs report shows that the labor market still has strength. That is good. But strength on paper does not erase pain at the pump. It does not erase inflation. It does not erase the fact that millions of Americans feel like they are running faster just to fall further behind.
-Ethan
