Good morning and welcome back to today’s edition of The Wolf’s Den. It’s Tuesday, May 26th, and today, it is worth stepping back and looking at the larger picture, because the last week has revealed something important about the state of Donald Trump’s presidency and the Republican Party that continues to orbit around him.
In the last week alone, we witnessed Donald Trump upset the Republican Party on three major issues. First, his endorsements. Trump threw Congressman Thomas Massie and Senator Bill Cassidy out of office by endorsing opposing candidates. Then, he endorsed challenger Ken Paxton over incumbent John Cornyn… a move many Republicans are saying could cost Republicans badly at the ballot box in Texas. Then, Republicans were furious about the anti-weaponization of government $1.8 billion slush fund for January 6th insurrectionists. And finally, Trump has upset his hawkish base over the potential of a weak Iran peace deal.
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For all the noise, all the bluster, and all the attempts to project strength, Trump’s governing coalition is beginning to look far more fragile than many people expected. Republicans control the House, the Senate, and the White House. On paper, that should give them an enormous advantage. In reality, they are discovering that governing with Donald Trump at the center is a lot harder than campaigning with him at the top of the ticket.
The key number here is four.
As Senator Ted Cruz recently acknowledged, Republicans have a 53-47 majority in the Senate. That sounds like a governing majority until you remember how narrow it actually is. Lose four Republican senators, and suddenly Trump’s agenda stalls. Lose four senators, and the party that claimed a mandate suddenly cannot move its own priorities through Congress.
That is not a small problem. That is a governing crisis waiting to happen.
And right now, Trump has given several Republican senators plenty of reasons to be furious.
Thom Tillis has already broken with Trump on key issues. Bill Cassidy has been targeted by Trump’s political machine. John Cornyn now finds himself openly disrespected after Trump endorsed Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race. Rand Paul has repeatedly shown he is willing to challenge Trump when he thinks the administration is going too far.
That is before we even get to the other divisions emerging inside the party.
Republicans are split over Trump’s handling of Iran. They are split over his foreign policy. They are split over his endorsements. They are split over whether loyalty to Trump is worth the political cost that comes with it. And they are certainly not all thrilled about the idea of a $1.8 billion slush fund that would redirect taxpayer money toward January 6th defendants and insurrectionists.
That last point is especially revealing.
For years, Republicans tried to move past January 6th while also refusing to fully condemn what happened that day. They wanted the political benefit of Trump’s base without the full moral burden of defending an attack on the Capitol. But Trump does not let them have it both ways. He keeps dragging them back to that day. He keeps demanding that they defend the indefensible. He keeps forcing them to choose between country and loyalty.
And now, some of them appear to be realizing just how politically dangerous that choice has become.
This is the central contradiction of Trump-era Republican politics. Trump demands total loyalty, but total loyalty to Trump often makes it harder for Republicans to govern, harder for them to win swing voters, and harder for them to explain themselves to the American people.
That matters heading into the next election cycle.
Democrats are already seeing signs of real opportunity. Trump’s approval remains deeply vulnerable. Voters are frustrated by the economy, by chaos overseas, and by a White House that seems far more interested in rewarding political allies than solving everyday problems. Meanwhile, Democrats are gaining ground in races that Republicans once assumed would be easy holds.
The lesson is not that Democrats can become complacent. They cannot. Nothing about this moment is automatic. Winning still requires discipline, message, turnout, and candidates who can speak clearly to people’s lives.
But the lesson is that Trump’s power is not as solid as he wants people to believe.
The Republican wall is cracking. The Senate math is unforgiving. The political consequences are building. And if Democrats stay focused, this could become one of the defining stories of the year.
-Ethan
